| Title: | Prediction of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias using multiple cardiovascular risk-factor polygenic risk scores |
| Journal: | Heart Rhythm |
| Published: | 15 Dec 2024 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39689778/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hrthm.2024.12.017 |
| URL: | https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/9a705f7d-9930-4874-9902-6d6ce2deab54 |
Publication 13985
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) prediction improves by combining clinical scores with a polygenic risk score (PRS) for AF (AF-PRS), but there are limited studies of PRS for ventricular arrhythmia (VA) prediction.</p>
OBJECTIVE: We assessed the value of including multiple PRS for cardiovascular risk factors (CV-PRS) for incident AF and VA prediction.</p>
METHODS: We used 158,733 individuals of European ancestry from UK Biobank to build 3 models for AF: CHARGE-AF (AF1), AF1 + AF-PRS (AF2), AF2 + CV-PRS (AF3). Models for VA included sex and age (VA1), VA1 + coronary artery disease (CAD) PRS (CAD-PRS, VA2), and VA2 + CV-PRS (VA3), conducting separate analyses in subjects with and without ischemic heart disease (IHD). Performance was evaluated in individuals of European (N = 158,733), African (N = 7200), South Asian (N = 9241) and East Asian (N = 2076) ancestry from UK Biobank.</p>
RESULTS: AF2 had a higher C-index than AF1 (0.762 vs 0.746, P < .001), marginally improving to 0.765 for AF3 (P < .001, including PRS for heart failure, electrocardiogram and cardiac magnetic resonance measures). In South Asians, AF2 C-index was higher than AF1 (P < .001). For VA, the C-index for VA2 was greater than VA1 (0.692 vs 0.681, P < .001) in Europeans, which was also observed in South Asians (P < .001). VA3 improved prediction of VA in individuals with IHD.</p>
CONCLUSION: CV-PRS improved AF prediction compared to CHARGE-AF and AF-PRS. A CAD-PRS improved VA prediction, while CV-PRS contributed in IHD. AF- and CAD-PRS were transferable to individuals of South Asian ancestry. Our results inform of the use of CV-PRS for personalized screening.</p>
13 Keywords
- Aged
- Atrial Fibrillation
- Electrocardiography
- Female
- Genetic Risk Score
- Humans
- Incidence
- Male
- Middle Aged
- Multifactorial Inheritance
- Risk Assessment
- Risk Factors
- United Kingdom
7 Authors
- Julia Ramírez
- Stefan van Duijvenboden
- Michele Orini
- Pier D Lambiase
- Andrew Tinker
- William J Young
- Patricia B Munroe
1 Application
| Application ID | Title |
|---|---|
| 8256 | Understanding genetic influences in the response of the cardiac electrical system to exercise |
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