| Title: | A Health Survey-Based Prediction Equation for Incident CKD |
| Journal: | Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology |
| Published: | 1 Jan 2023 |
| Pubmed: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36720027/ |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.2215/cjn.0000000000000035 |
| URL: | https://journals.lww.com/cjasn/fulltext/2023/01000/a_health_survey_based_prediction_equation_for.8.aspx |
Publication 10902
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Abstract
BACKGROUND: Prediction tools that incorporate self-reported health information could increase CKD awareness, identify modifiable lifestyle risk factors, and prevent disease. We developed and validated a survey-based prediction equation to identify individuals at risk for incident CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2), with and without a baseline eGFR.</p>
METHODS: A cohort of adults with an eGFR ≥70 ml/min per 1.73 m2 from Ontario, Canada, who completed a comprehensive general population health survey between 2000 and 2015 were included (n=22,200). Prediction equations included demographics (age, sex), comorbidities, lifestyle factors, diet, and mood. Models with and without baseline eGFR were derived and externally validated in the UK Biobank (n=15,522). New-onset CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) with ≤8 years of follow-up was the primary outcome.</p>
RESULTS: Among Ontario individuals (mean age, 55 years; 58% women; baseline eGFR, 95 (SD 15) ml/min per 1.73 m2), new-onset CKD occurred in 1981 (9%) during a median follow-up time of 4.2 years. The final models included lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol, physical activity) and comorbid illnesses (diabetes, hypertension, cancer). The model was discriminating in individuals with and without a baseline eGFR measure (5-year c-statistic with baseline eGFR: 83.5, 95% confidence interval [CI], 82.2 to 84.9; without: 81.0, 95% CI, 79.8 to 82.4) and well calibrated. In external validation, the 5-year c-statistic was 78.1 (95% CI, 74.2 to 82.0) and 66.0 (95% CI, 61.6 to 70.4), with and without baseline eGFR, respectively, and maintained calibration.</p>
CONCLUSIONS: Self-reported lifestyle and health behavior information from health surveys may aid in predicting incident CKD.</p>
PODCAST: This article contains a podcast at https://dts.podtrac.com/redirect.mp3/www.asn-online.org/media/podcast.aspx?p=CJASN&e=2023_01_10_CJN05650522.mp3.</p>
10 Authors
- Ariana J. Noel
- Anan Badder Eddeen
- Douglas G. Manuel
- Emily Rhodes
- Navdeep Tangri
- Gregory L. Hundemer
- Peter Tanuseputro
- Gregory A. Knoll
- Ranjeeta Mallick
- Manish M. Sood
Enabling scientific discoveries that improve human health